Iran is reportedly planning a significant and complex response to Israel’s recent airstrikes on its targets, according to officials from Iran and the Arab world. Following a major ballistic missile attack on Israel in early October, Israel launched precise strikes that marked its first incursions into Iranian territory.

Initially, Iranian leaders seemed to downplay the Israeli strikes, but they have since promised a “painful” retaliation, with indications that it could occur before the upcoming U.S. elections and potentially be executed from Iraq.

Officials have indicated that Iran aims to mount a more powerful attack than its previous missile strikes in April and October, utilizing larger missiles. An Egyptian official mentioned that Iran had communicated plans for a strong response through private channels, while other Arab officials noted that Iran’s retaliation would involve not only the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) but also its regular military, following the deaths of four Iranian soldiers.

An Iranian official stated that the military must respond due to losses, suggesting the attack could be partially launched from Iraqi territory and would likely target Israeli military sites more aggressively than prior strikes. However, it was also noted that this retaliation might be delayed until after the U.S. elections to avoid influencing the outcome in favor of Donald Trump, but could occur before the presidential inauguration in January.

Western officials report that Iranian leadership is still evaluating potential attack strategies, including possibly directing proxy forces to engage Israel for plausible deniability and to deter further Israeli strikes on Iranian soil. Egyptian, Bahraini, and Omani officials have received warnings from Iran in light of U.S. advisories against further retaliation.

While Iranian leaders have continued their threats, President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Israel’s actions could not go unanswered, though the nature and intensity of Iran’s response would depend on the feasibility of achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon or Gaza.

In response, Israeli officials have emphasized their military readiness to counter threats, with Prime Minister Netanyahu noting that Israel had already targeted Iran’s vulnerable points. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) believe their strikes have significantly diminished Iran’s defensive capabilities against future assaults.

Israeli officials have warned that future attacks may target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, which were previously spared at the request of the Biden administration. The U.S. government has cautioned Iran that it cannot restrain Israel from responding and has reinforced its military presence in the region, including the deployment of additional defense systems and forces.