The IDF has displayed a fluctuating approach to its attacks on Hezbollah, shifting from a clear escalation over the past week to a more restrained strategy by Tuesday.
In the days leading up to Monday, the number of attacks surged dramatically, reaching a staggering 1,300, marking the most intense day of fighting with Lebanon since the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
By Tuesday, the frequency of strikes had significantly decreased, with reports indicating a reduction of around fivefold.
Early Wednesday, while the IDF continued its operations against Hezbollah, the number of strikes had again diminished, focusing primarily on southern Lebanon rather than the more strategically significant Bekaa Valley, which had been targeted earlier.
Around 11:00 a.m. Wednesday, the IDF announced it would initiate another series of extensive airstrikes, this time including targets in the Bekaa Valley as well as southern Lebanon. The scale of these attacks remains to be clarified.
Following Hezbollah’s recent escalation, including missile strikes on Tel Aviv and central Israeli areas, it remains uncertain whether the IDF’s next moves will represent a significant escalation or simply mirror Monday’s operations.
If Israel’s actions are intended to buy time for diplomatic efforts while Hezbollah’s leadership shows willingness to negotiate a ceasefire, this strategy could be effective. Conversely, if the IDF is merely preparing for a larger imminent assault, this may alter Hezbollah’s calculations.
However, if the ongoing fluctuation in attacks signals indecision from the Israeli government, the consequences are severe. A third of the country, from Haifa northward, has been under lockdown for five days, with no resolution in sight.
This situation is compounded by the 60,000 evacuees from the northern border and the Israeli hostages in Gaza, alongside a growing decline in Israel’s global legitimacy as the conflict persists.