US expert: Iran unlikely to go nuclear in 2012

JERUSALEM (JWN and agencies)—A prestigious US research institute on Wednesday reported its assessment that Iran is unlikely to make a concentrated effort to produce a nuclear weapon this year, due to the present limitations of its uranium enrichment capability.

The report by the Institute for Science and International Security, which has not yet been released, says “Iran is unlikely to decide to dash toward making nuclear weapons, as long as its uranium enrichment capability remains as limited as it is today.”

The institute, whose founder and president is nuclear expert David Albright, said that Iran has not yet decided to build a nuclear bomb. “Iran is unlikely to break out in 2012, in great part because it is deterred from doing so,” said the ISIS report, a draft of which was obtained by Reuters.

The report also notes that the escalating sanctions on Iran, plus the regime’s fear of possible military action by Israel or the United States, have served as a deterrent to the militarization of Iran’s nuclear program.

Much of the Iranian nuclear program has civilian applications, but the Iranians are deliberately keeping their options open. This significantly adds to the air of ambiguity, US officials told Reuters.

The ISIS report was financed by a grant from the United States Institute of Peace, an independent, non-partisan center created by the US Congress in 1984. The institute, which receives federal funding, has advised US and foreign governments about Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Albright is a well respected expert on the issue.

Although Israeli analysts have stated that Iran’s nuclear development program has advanced far enough to enable it to build a bomb in a year or less, the ISIS report disagrees. “Although Iran is engaged in nuclear hedging, no evidence has emerged that the regime has decided to build nuclear weapons.”

“Such a decision may be unlikely to occur until Iran is first able to augment its enrichment capability to a point where it would have the ability to make weapon-grade uranium quickly and secretly,” the report obtained by Reuters said.

It also disagreed with the report last November by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency that found Iran had made significant progress on nuclear weaponization. “Iran’s essential challenge remains developing a secure capability to make enough weapon-grade uranium, likely for at least several nuclear weapons,” the ISIS report said.

The report follows an unsettling announcement by Iran several weeks ago that it had begun to enrich uranium in a plant buried deep underground near the holy city of Qom.

US President Barack Obama declared in his State of the Union message on Tuesday, “Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal.”

According to ISIS, one option that is not likely to halt Iran’s nuclear program is a military attack. Airstrikes, the report said, are “oversold as to their ability to end or even significantly delay Iran’s nuclear program.” Bombing would be “unlikely to destroy Iran’s main capability” to produce weapon-grade uranium.

ISIS noted that, in addition to moving production facilities underground, Iran has dispersed its uranium enrichment centrifuges throughout the country. The report states that Iran probably has enough backup centrifuges to quickly rebuild its production after an attack in a crash program to produce a bomb.

The report said that clandestine intelligence operations are “vitally important” for detecting secret Iranian nuclear activities, but cautioned against assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists and engineers. This has “serious downsides and implications,” such as Iranian retaliation.

Since thousands of specialists are involved in Iran’s nuclear program, the report said, assassinations are unlikely to be effective in slowing it down.